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Michael Mann delivers lecture on effects of climate change
By Noelle Connors ’19
April 7, 2016
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On Monday, April 4 at 7 p.m., Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State University Michael E. Mann, an expert on climate change gave a lecture titled, “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines” based on his book with the same title. Mann began his lecture by describing that he approaches climate change from the perspective of a “science geek,” and that “the last thing on my agenda was finding myself at the center of a contentious debate.” According to Mann, the scientific case for climate change is relatively straightforward and has long been established as fact. For almost two centuries, scientists have known about the greenhouse effect; Joseph Forier introduced the term in 1837. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of thousands of conservative scientists from many nations, announced, “the warming of the planet is unequivocal.” Mann described the fact that 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded, then 2015 broke this record to become the hottest year on record.
While many people acknowledge that the earth is becoming warmer, people still contest that it is humans causing the problems. However, Mann showed this clearly through the use of many models and revealing graphs. As Haley Berliner ’19 summarized, “He had very powerful graphs and pictures which helped reinforce his argument.” Mann demonstrated how scientists have used models to predict the natural warming of the planet and the effects of humans on the planets’ warming. When the model was used to show only the effects of natural factors, the earth would have cooled over the past 20 years. However, when it was modified to include the effects of fossil fuels and other human impacts, the earth warmed significantly matching scientists’ observations. Therefore, in 2013 the IPCC concluded, “It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other [human] forcings together.” The IPCC, which represents the general views of scientists globally, acknowledged three years ago that humans are responsible for global warming.
Furthermore, Mann emphasized that the effects of climate change are not unique to the Arctic, or the world in hundreds of years, but they are visible and important now. The changing jet stream pattern caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations has been making what would usually be bad events catastrophic. For example, Hurricane Sandy, the California drought and the Texas drought in 2011 were all events that are similar to events that have occurred historically, yet they occurred on record scales. According to Mann, scientists have concluded that because of climate change, massive, destructive events like these will continue to occur on a more regular basis.
Mann addressed the involvement of politics in climate change and blamed politics for the reason that no action has been taken to fight it. According to Mann, the science is irrefutable, but politicians are being paid by the fossil fuel industry to postpone action and deny that climate change exists to prevent the public from demanding change. Joy Krasner ’19 summarized, “I was really shocked at the reasons that caused leading political figures to refute climate change. Originally I thought disputing global warming stems simply from ignorance, but knowing that these arguments are mainly fueled by economic or political motivations is really disturbing.” Mann described his own experience of science being refuted by politics.
He became famous for his hockey stick graph, which reveals the dramatic, unprecedented warming of the planet which has begun to occur. Other scientists have analyzed different data and all come to the same conclusion: the warming will follow this hockey stick pattern with a sudden increase. While scientists valued this graph, politicians fought it. One Congressman even subpoenaed Mann and his team to send in all their private emails along with all of their research because he wanted to discredit the hockey stick. Luckily, many politicians and scientists everywhere realized the enormous threat this posed to science. One Republican Congressman, Sherwood Boehlert from New York, spoke against the subpoena more than any other Democrat because of the threat to science. As Mann told this story of crossing party lines to support science, the audience broke into applause for Boehlert, who sat in the front row of the chapel during the lecture.
Finally, Mann concluded that he believes all possible solutions for climate change need to be explored. Additionally, he emphasized that climate change is not debatable, but an issue of intergenerational ethics about preserving the planet for the safety and security of future generations.