A&E
Predictions for Major Oscar Categories
By Matt Burner ’17
February 23, 2017
Tags a+e
A few weeks ago, I wrote an article about this year’s major Oscar storylines. Ranging from the likely political undertones that would accompany this year’s ceremony to the debates over various categories, the Oscars certainly isn’t lacking in drama. With the Academy Awards airing this Sunday at 7 p.m., this article seeks to predict what will win some of the most coveted awards. This article’s format will consist of the nominees then I will discuss what film will most likely win in its respective category followed by the most likely film to upset viewers.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Winner: La La Land
Runner-up: Moonlight
The earlier article about this year’s Academy Award storylines mentioned how the race for Best Picture was quickly turning into a two-horse race between La La Land and Moonlight. Whereas La La Land was an upbeat musical about life in Los Angeles with two big names in Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling as the leads, Moonlight was much more of an indie film, with lesser-known actors and a virtually unknown director/screenwriter leading the way. Based on the overwhelming popularity of La La Land and the fact that the Oscars is in many ways a simple popularity contest, La La Land is the predicted winner. This is not to take away from Moonlight though, as many people would argue it.
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Winner: Casey Affleck
Runner-up: Denzel Washington
This year’s Best Actor field is much harder to call than last year’s, where Leonardo DiCaprio was the overwhelming favorite for his impressive work in The Revenant. In Manchester by the Sea, Casey Affleck delivers an incredible performance as a tortured soul who is required to take care of his nephew following his brother’s death. Based on the emotional weight he lends to the role along with the Golden Globe he received earlier, he appears the most likely to win. However, don’t be surprised if either Denzel Washington upsets due to his strong performance in Fences or the overwhelming popularity of La La Land propels Ryan Gosling into the winner’s circle.
Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Winner: Natalie Portman
Runner-up: Emma Stone
Like the Best Actor field, this year’s Best Actress field is also very hard to predict. While part of me thinks that the La La Land love will lead to Emma Stone winning, Natalie Portman delivered a truly remarkable performance as Jackie Kennedy. This performance is what will ultimately lead to her winning the Best Actress award. The notable dark horse in this category is French actress Isabelle Huppert, who plays a sexually assaulted woman who quickly turns the tables on her rapist. Reportedly, the movie’s graphic and dark nature has turned many voters off of it, although her performance is certainly worthy of the award. Her Golden Globe win may have been the wakeup call the Academy needs.